人民币汇率创15个月新高，双向波动或是常态

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the USD has broken the "7" mark for the first time since October 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, indicating a significant appreciation trend driven by a weakening USD and stable Chinese economic fundamentals [3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily attributed to the weakening of the USD, which has seen a decline of about 3% since late November [4]. - China's trade surplus for the first 11 months of 2025 reached $1.0758 trillion, providing a solid foundation for the RMB's strength [4]. - The increase in corporate demand for currency settlement at year-end has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, although this "settlement tide" is not the main driver of the current appreciation [4][5]. Group 2: Future Outlook on RMB Exchange Rate - Experts caution against expecting a new cycle of sustained RMB appreciation, suggesting that the exchange rate will likely exhibit two-way fluctuations rather than a unilateral trend [7][11]. - The future trajectory of the USD is uncertain, with predictions of a potential rebound after a period of decline, which could diminish the RMB's appreciation momentum [7][8]. - The complexity of China's external economic environment, including trade relations and potential retaliatory measures from other countries, adds uncertainty to the RMB's future [9][10]. Group 3: Impact on Enterprises - The appreciation of the RMB presents both opportunities and challenges for businesses, benefiting capital markets and importers while posing risks for exporters [15][16]. - Exporters are experiencing exchange rate losses due to the RMB's rapid appreciation, affecting their international price competitiveness and order flow [16]. - Companies are advised to adopt systematic risk management strategies to mitigate the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations, focusing on maintaining a neutral stance on currency risk [17].