从这些关键词中寻找确定性：科技、长期主义、多元配置｜2025雪球嘉年华

Core Insights - The 2025 Xueqiu Carnival held in Shanghai focused on macroeconomic outlook, industry investment opportunities, and asset allocation strategies, emphasizing "long-termism" and "asset allocation" as key themes for investors preparing for 2026 [2][4][11] Macroeconomic Trends - China's economic positioning and potential were highlighted, with ICBC International's chief economist Cheng Shi noting that China's economic advantages are systemic and comprehensive, acting as a "fast variable" and "stabilizer" in the global economy. He emphasized that Chinese assets are entering a value reassessment phase [4][6] - Cheng summarized two core viewpoints: the ongoing "East rises, West declines" trend in global asset allocation and the importance of integrating investments in both material and human capital to grasp future investment opportunities [4][6] Investment Strategies - Liu Gang from CICC pointed out that the Chinese market's excess liquidity continues to chase "scarce return assets." He noted that 2025 will exhibit many counterintuitive market characteristics, including diverse asset performance and significant asset rotation, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [6][11] - Liu suggested that credit expansion is a key explanatory factor for current market phenomena and provided guidance for 2026 investment directions, recommending alignment with credit expansion trends [6][11] Thematic Investments - The rise of quantitative strategies and index funds, especially ETFs, was emphasized as crucial for investors to build portfolios and achieve returns. The ETF market in China is expected to enter a golden development period over the next decade [11][33] - The focus on AI and dividend sectors for 2026 was recommended as a complementary strategy [7][11] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors were highlighted as key areas of interest, with AI driving significant changes. The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see innovations, particularly in drug development processes [22][23][24] - The semiconductor industry remains a focal point, with ongoing demand driven by AI applications and the need for advanced chips. The investment logic in this sector is expected to continue evolving [28][30] Market Dynamics - The discussion around AI's impact on various sectors, including the potential for human-like robots to enter a critical industrialization phase by 2026, was prevalent. The anticipated growth in robot production and application scenarios was noted as a significant investment opportunity [30][31] - The importance of understanding market cycles and constructing risk-aware portfolios was emphasized, with strategies focusing on both undervalued assets and sectors with high certainty of returns [38][39]