21社论丨增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with a weakening US dollar index creating a favorable external environment for the RMB's appreciation [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, with the target range for the federal funds rate expected to drop to 3.50%-3.75% by December 2025, have contributed to a nearly 10% decline in the dollar index this year, providing passive appreciation space for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [1] Group 2 - The supply of foreign exchange from the real economy has provided short-term driving forces for the recent strengthening of the RMB, with banks reporting a cumulative settlement amount of 16.28 trillion yuan and a cumulative sale amount of 15.59 trillion yuan, resulting in a continuous surplus for seven months [2] - As the year-end approaches, foreign exchange net inflow momentum is further released, driven by foreign trade enterprises converting their foreign exchange income into RMB and some companies accelerating their settlement operations to lock in favorable exchange rates [2] Group 3 - The resilience of the Chinese economy and proactive medium- to long-term policies support the RMB's appreciation, with the Central Economic Work Conference indicating a more proactive macro policy for 2026, including continued fiscal and monetary policy support [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand, along with China's advantages in market size, industrial systems, and talent, will contribute to steady economic progress, providing fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 4 - The strengthening of the RMB enhances the value of RMB-denominated financial assets, positively impacting China's stock and bond markets, with international investors benefiting from both asset returns and additional exchange rate gains [3] - For import enterprises, a stronger RMB reduces costs for energy, raw materials, and high-end consumer goods, while export enterprises may face pricing competition challenges, necessitating the use of foreign exchange derivatives for risk management [3] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of guiding market expectations to prevent one-sided trends in the RMB exchange rate, with measures in place to stabilize market expectations and mitigate risks of excessive fluctuations [4] - The central bank has sufficient policy tools for timely counter-cyclical adjustments to offset market behaviors during periods of rapid and significant exchange rate movements, aiming for a stable and predictable exchange rate environment [4]