白银狂飙141%，硅料大涨，光伏组件想涨价却涨不动

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase of photovoltaic (PV) modules is primarily driven by rising upstream material costs, particularly silver paste, which has seen significant price hikes due to the surge in silver prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Price Increases and Cost Structure - Major PV module manufacturers, including Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, have raised their module prices by 0.02 to 0.05 yuan per watt due to increased costs of upstream materials [1]. - Silver paste has become the largest cost component in PV modules, accounting for 17% of the total cost, followed by silicon materials at 14% and glass at 13% [5]. - The average price of N-type multicrystalline silicon has risen from 41,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 53,900 yuan/ton by December 24, marking a 29.88% increase [6]. - The spot price of silver has increased from 6.68 yuan/gram to 16.11 yuan/gram, reflecting a 141.17% rise [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Returns - The price increase of upstream materials has not effectively translated to module prices due to concerns over the internal rate of return (IRR) for downstream solar power plant operators, which has been negatively impacted by recent policy changes [6][7]. - The IRR for domestic PV projects has decreased to a range of 6% to 7%, down from previous standards of 7% to 7.5% [6][7]. - There is a strong correlation between module prices and the IRR for solar power plants, indicating that any price increase in modules could dampen installation demand [7]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations and Market Demand - Industry experts suggest that module prices need to reach at least 0.8 yuan/W to ensure profitability for integrated module companies, with some estimates suggesting a target range of 0.88 to 0.99 yuan/W [9]. - The current average price for N-type TOPCon modules is 0.698 yuan/W, with a slight increase of 0.7% noted recently [9]. - Despite the desire for price increases, the limited market demand poses challenges for driving module prices higher in the short term [10]. - The newly released data indicates that China's newly installed PV capacity reached 252.87 GW from January to October, but the growth rate is expected to slow down, leading to uncertainty in future demand [10].