18地明年Q1地方债将发1.37万亿，四川居首

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated issuance of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting a significant increase in planned issuance compared to previous years, indicating strong demand for funding across various regions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Issuance Plans and Trends - As of December 25, 2025, 18 regions have announced a total planned issuance of local government bonds amounting to 1.37 trillion yuan for Q1 2026 [1][3]. - The issuance schedule shows a peak expected in late January and early March 2026, with over 300 billion yuan planned for these periods, indicating a concentrated supply in the primary market [1][3]. - The planned issuance for January is approximately 597.8 billion yuan, a notable increase from 557.6 billion yuan in January 2025, reflecting a faster issuance pace and strong funding demand [4]. Group 2: Regional Issuance Breakdown - The top three regions for planned bond issuance in Q1 2026 are Sichuan (188.7 billion yuan), Jiangxi (128.5 billion yuan), and Guangxi (111.3 billion yuan), with Sichuan leading in planned issuance [3][4]. Group 3: Bond Types and Uses - The planned issuance includes a larger scale of new special bonds and refinancing general bonds compared to Q1 2025, indicating a pressing need for financing new projects and refinancing existing debts [4][6]. - The shift in management of special bonds from a "positive list" to a "negative list" allows for a broader range of projects to be financed, enhancing local governments' decision-making autonomy [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Outlook - Despite concerns about the capacity of banks and insurance companies to absorb long-term bonds, the market remains optimistic about the potential for profit, with local bonds seen as increasingly attractive [7]. - The overall supply of government bonds is expected to increase, providing financial institutions with more quality assets, as the central government continues to implement a proactive fiscal policy [8]. - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds is projected to remain stable, which may enhance the attractiveness of local bonds for investment [9].