一则消息引爆，碳酸锂期货突破13万关口

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a significant breakthrough, with the main contract rising over 8% to surpass 130,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high since November 2023, and a year-to-date increase of 67.29% [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The lithium carbonate main contract has shown a continuous upward trend for six consecutive trading days, becoming one of the best-performing commodities in the market [2]. - The Wind lithium mining index rose by 3.24%, with leading stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie Co., and Tianqi Lithium Industries seeing gains of over 3% [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price surge is attributed to expectations of supply contraction in the upstream sector, particularly following announcements from major companies like Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy regarding production cuts [3]. - Hunan Youneng plans to reduce phosphate material production by 15,000 to 35,000 tons starting January 1, 2026, while Wanrun New Energy will cut lithium iron phosphate production by 5,000 to 20,000 tons from December 28, 2025 [3]. Inventory and Regulatory Actions - Current inventory levels of lithium carbonate raw materials in the cathode segment have significantly decreased, leading to potential pressure on active restocking [4]. - In response to the rapid price increase, regulatory authorities have implemented measures to prevent excessive speculation, including adjustments to trading limits and minimum order quantities for lithium carbonate futures contracts [4]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a "strong reality and strong expectation resonance" in the lithium carbonate market, with short-term volatility risks due to production cuts potentially weakening demand [5]. - The overall market is expected to remain in a tight supply-demand balance, with prices likely to experience strong fluctuations, while the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to anticipated global energy storage demand in 2026 [5].