国投白银LOF套利，有人收益70%、有人仅赚“奶茶钱”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices and the associated investment opportunities and risks, particularly focusing on the National Investment Silver LOF fund, which has seen significant price increases and high premium rates, indicating a potential bubble in the market [4][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Dynamics - As of December 24, the National Investment Silver LOF fund's market price reached 3.116 yuan, doubling since November 28, with a year-to-date return exceeding 250% [5]. - The fund's premium rate soared to 61.64%, significantly higher than the latest net asset value of 1.93 yuan, indicating a growing divergence between market price and net value [5][9]. - The fund's total assets increased from 2.178 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 6.64 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a growth of over 200% [9]. Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities - The fund's unique dual trading mechanism allows investors to purchase shares at net asset value through off-market channels or trade them on the stock exchange, creating arbitrage opportunities [7]. - Investors have reported substantial profits from arbitrage, with one example showing a 70% return in just two days by capitalizing on the price difference between market and net value [8]. - The potential theoretical profit from a specific arbitrage scenario was calculated to be over 390 yuan, with a return rate close to 80% [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The high premium on the fund is attributed to a severe supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by strict purchase limits implemented since October 20, which restricted daily purchases to 100 yuan for A-class shares [9][10]. - The surge in silver prices, with London silver reaching a historical high of 72.7 USD/oz and a year-to-date increase of nearly 150%, has attracted significant capital inflow into the fund [9]. Group 4: Risks and Regulatory Responses - The article highlights multiple risks associated with the arbitrage opportunities, including time lag risks and liquidity risks, which could lead to significant losses for investors if market conditions change [11]. - The fund management has issued 14 risk warnings and implemented temporary trading halts to manage the high premium rates and mitigate potential market volatility [11][12]. - Experts suggest that the current arbitrage mechanism may be ineffective due to the time lag in transactions and the limitations on large capital participation, warning investors to be cautious [12].