ESG行业洞察 | 2026年ESG展望：债券发行规模有望连续第三年突破2万亿美元

Core Viewpoint - The global sustainable bond issuance is expected to exceed $2 trillion for the third consecutive year by 2026, driven by sovereign nations, supranational organizations, and government agencies [3][4]. Group 1: Sustainable Bond Issuance - The issuance of green bonds and social responsibility bonds is projected to remain dominant, supported by strong demand from impact investors [4]. - As of October this year, green bond issuance has increased by 3% year-on-year, with growth expected to be in the low to mid-single digits by 2026 [4]. - The largest single issuer, Gilead, continues to provide mortgage financing support for underserved communities, while supranational organizations are increasingly certifying bonds as social responsibility bonds [4]. Group 2: Bond Returns and Risks - As of October this year, the returns on global green, social, and sustainable corporate bonds exceeded 11%, higher than the mid-single-digit returns expected for 2025 [6]. - Sustainable bond spreads are narrower than investment-grade bonds, nearing historical lows, with potential risks if economic data remains weak and inflation stays moderate [6]. - The refinancing risk is limited, with an expected net supply of nearly $1 trillion in new sustainable bonds by 2026, despite a peak in debt maturity expected in 2028 [8]. Group 3: Thematic Sustainable Investments - Thematic fixed-income products are anticipated to continue expanding, driven by strong investor demand for targeted solutions addressing environmental and social issues [11]. - Specialized ESG products like blue bonds and debt-for-nature swaps are expected to contribute to growth, with $184 billion issued year-to-date, including 361 transactions related to ocean themes [11][13]. - Recent agreements, such as Indonesia's debt-for-nature deal, highlight the active nature of such transactions, although U.S. policy shifts may weaken support for these initiatives [11].