工业硅周评—供需双弱库存累积 市场震荡延续（2025年12月24日）

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations constrained by cost support and weak demand [1][3]. Supply Side - Production remains stable across major production areas, particularly in Xinjiang, but price differentiation has increased due to volatile futures prices. Some manufacturers are either maintaining high quotes or choosing not to quote at all, while others are selling below market average to improve cash flow [2]. - The operating rates in regions like Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Gansu are at low levels due to a prolonged low-price environment, which has suppressed production enthusiasm. Overall transaction volumes remain low despite some attempts to support prices [2]. - The pricing mechanism is becoming more financialized, with a growing trend of using a "futures price + basis" procurement model, enhancing the linkage between spot prices and futures markets [2]. Demand Side - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly the organic silicon and polysilicon industries, is weak, leading to reduced procurement of industrial silicon. The overall support for demand is insufficient, with risks of further demand contraction highlighted by losses across the photovoltaic industry chain [2]. - Although the aluminum alloy market has seen a slight increase in futures prices (from 21,110 yuan/ton to 21,480 yuan/ton), this has not significantly boosted demand for industrial silicon [2]. Market Overview - The industrial silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation and continued price fluctuations. While supply is supported by costs, slow inventory depletion and reduced downstream production are leading to demand contraction, resulting in price resistance [3]. - Short-term price expectations indicate continued range-bound fluctuations, with future trends heavily dependent on the recovery pace of downstream demand and the progress of inventory depletion [3]. Price Data - As of December 24, the national average price for industrial silicon is 9,245 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. Specific grades show varied price movements, with 553 at 8,713 yuan/ton (down 94 yuan/ton) and 441 at 9,169 yuan/ton (up 51 yuan/ton) [1][4]. - Regional prices vary, with Xinjiang at 8,810 yuan/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 yuan/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 yuan/ton [4].