13个精算师·2025-12-26 11:03Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of liquidity risk management for insurance companies, highlighting new regulatory adjustments that include actual operating indicators, predictive indicators, and retrospective indicators to provide timely warnings of potential liquidity risks [2][10][11]. Group 1: Liquidity Risk Indicators - The new regulatory framework includes three types of indicators: actual operating indicators (net cash flow), predictive indicators (liquidity coverage ratio), and retrospective predictive indicators (operating cash flow retrospective adverse deviation rate) [2][11]. - The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) under basic and stress scenarios must not fall below 100% and 50% respectively, with the average LCR for 73 life insurance companies being 96.2% under stress scenarios [8][49][53]. Group 2: Net Cash Flow Analysis - In the third quarter of 2025, the cumulative net cash flow for 73 life insurance companies was -23.7 billion, indicating a negative trend over three consecutive years [13][20]. - Among these companies, 16 maintained positive net cash flow over the past three years, while 37 had negative cash flow in one year, and 19 had negative cash flow in two years [20][21]. Group 3: Adverse Deviation Rate - The operating cash flow retrospective adverse deviation rate for the industry was 126%, indicating that actual results were better than predicted [29]. - Notably, two companies had consecutive adverse deviation rates below -30%, which may indicate non-compliance with regulatory requirements [34][36]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as Sanxia Life and Ping An Pension have shown concerning trends with their adverse deviation rates falling below regulatory thresholds [34][36]. - The average liquidity coverage ratio for the 73 companies under basic scenarios was 147%, with a median of 111%, indicating overall compliance with regulatory requirements [42][46].