伦敦实物白银，陷入历史性挤兑？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the extreme shortage of physical silver in the London market, as evidenced by the significant drop in silver swap rates compared to U.S. interest rates, indicating ongoing upward pressure on silver prices [2][4][6] - The one-year silver swap rate has reached -7.18%, suggesting that the supply-demand imbalance will persist until the rate returns to zero, which is considered the normalization point [2][4] - The article emphasizes that the current situation is unprecedented, with such a sharp and sustained decline in silver swap rates rarely occurring in the past [5] Group 2 - The article explains that typically, silver swap rates should be positive due to storage and insurance costs, but a negative rate indicates a physical supply shortage, leading traders to pay premiums for immediate silver acquisition [4][6] - There is a growing trend among manufacturers, such as solar panel producers, to hold physical silver rather than paper contracts, raising concerns about future delivery capabilities [7] - The disparity between silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange is significant, further driving silver from London to Shanghai [8] Group 3 - The London silver market is described as having a significant leverage effect, where many investors hold "unallocated ownership certificates" rather than physical silver, creating a risk of a systemic collapse due to the mismatch between paper and physical silver [10] - The article illustrates the precarious situation in the London market, likening it to a reservoir with limited physical silver but an abundance of claims for it, indicating a potential crisis [10]