全球贸易在2026年前景如何？分析师：这四个“不确定性”很关键

Core Viewpoint - Despite the construction of tariff barriers by the largest global economy, international trade in goods is expected to maintain a relatively strong momentum in 2025, although the trajectory of trade is shifting with a decline in U.S. imports and robust growth in imports from developing economies in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America [3] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Global container shipping volume increased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the global container supply chain is beginning to adjust and reshape trade patterns [3] - The U.S. container import volume is projected to decline significantly in 2025, contrasting with a 15.2% increase in 2024 [3] - Trade experts anticipate increased turbulence in international trade over the next year, driven by four key uncertainties: the review of the USMCA, the reopening of the Red Sea route, agreement uncertainties, and the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs [3] Group 2: USMCA Review - The U.S., Canada, and Mexico are set to review the USMCA, which allows for updates six years after its implementation [5] - Over 1,500 responses were received during the public consultation period, with many stakeholders supporting the agreement but calling for improvements [6] - Tensions between the U.S. and Canada have escalated following the suspension of trade talks due to a tariff advertisement controversy [6] Group 3: Shipping Concerns - Shipping companies express concerns about the upcoming year, with potential disruptions similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - The return to the Red Sea shipping route could lead to increased market capacity and severe port congestion in Europe [7] - Demand from the U.S. economy may not see significant growth, with estimates suggesting a maximum increase of less than 5% [8] Group 4: Trade Agreements - The Trump administration's trade agreements with various partners lack traditional legal binding and enforcement mechanisms, raising concerns about their stability [10] - The agreements with the UK and EU are described as non-binding, with the term "deal" lacking legal significance [10] - Ongoing negotiations with the EU and India are expected to continue into the new year, with potential retaliatory measures from the U.S. against the EU [10] Group 5: Supreme Court Ruling - A significant unknown in global trade for 2026 is the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the Trump administration's tariffs [12] - If the Trump administration loses, it may have to refund tariffs paid by U.S. importers, although the process remains uncertain [12] - The likelihood of the Trump administration losing the case is estimated at 75%, which could force the government to utilize other powers to impose tariffs [12]