专访诺奖得主斯宾塞：全球经济在碎片化中寻找新均衡

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is navigating through profound changes, characterized by geopolitical conflicts, restructuring of global supply chains, and adjustments in national policies between "efficiency" and "security" [1] Group 1: Economic Characteristics of 2025 - The most significant change is the drastic shift in U.S. foreign economic policy, reflected in increased tariffs and withdrawal from multilateral agreements like the Paris Accord [4] - The fragmentation trend in the global economy, which began before the Trump administration, has been accelerated by external shocks and geopolitical tensions, leading to a diversification of supply chains [4] - The initial uncertainty caused by tariffs has largely dissipated, with a new, manageable tariff system emerging, allowing global trade and investment to continue despite the changes [5] Group 2: Emerging Markets and Growth Engines - India has shown considerable resilience with a recent growth rate of approximately 8%, while several ASEAN countries are also performing strongly, albeit dependent on China's economic performance [9] - African nations have potential for growth if they can implement growth-oriented policies, benefiting from a young demographic [9] Group 3: 2026 Economic Forecast - The baseline prediction for global economic growth in 2026 is between low and moderate, contingent on the absence of major disruptions such as large-scale conflicts or deteriorating relations among major economies [11] - The U.S. economy, accounting for about 25% of global GDP, plays a crucial role in determining global economic directions, particularly regarding sanctions and trade restrictions [11] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Complex Situation - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts typically ease global monetary conditions, which can be beneficial for the economy, but rapid or excessive cuts may reignite inflation [13] - The Fed faces a complex situation with signs of economic weakening, particularly in sectors reliant on the lower half of the income distribution, while inflation remains above target levels [13][14] Group 5: U.S. Consumer Dependency on High-Income Groups - U.S. consumer spending is increasingly reliant on the top 25% of income earners, supported by rising asset prices, while the lower 50% face economic pressures leading to weakened consumption in certain sectors [17][18] Group 6: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The current trajectory of deficits and debt is unsustainable in the long term, with the timing and manner of potential crises dependent on economic growth performance [20][21]