见证历史！贵金属上演史诗级暴涨，发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have experienced a historic surge, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all seeing significant increases, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and low market liquidity [2][3][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - On December 26, during the New York trading session, gold futures rose by 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 3.98%. Spot gold increased by 1.12% to $4,531.1 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 4.44% [4]. - Silver futures surged by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, marking an 18.06% increase for the week, while spot silver rose by 10.24% to $79.196 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 17.87% and an annual increase of 175% [4]. - Palladium and platinum also saw significant gains, with palladium rising by 14.24% to $1,923.4 per ounce (weekly increase of 12.63%) and platinum increasing by 10.31% to $2,450.91 per ounce (weekly rise of 24.31%) [4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - Analysts attribute the strength in precious metals to escalating geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and low market liquidity. Recent actions by the U.S. to block sanctioned oil tankers from Venezuela and military actions in Yemen have contributed to this environment [6]. - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver is being supported by these geopolitical developments, alongside the low liquidity in the market at year-end, which amplifies price volatility [6]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Since the October short squeeze, most of the globally available silver has remained in New York, with traders concerned about potential tariff risks as silver has been listed as a critical mineral by the U.S. [7]. - The market is experiencing a significant increase in speculative trading, with the trading volume of options for the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reaching its highest level since the Reddit trading frenzy in 2021 [7]. - Experts warn of an extreme shortage of physical silver in the London market, as indicated by the negative spread between silver swap rates and U.S. rates, suggesting a supply crunch [8][9]. Group 4: Implications of Supply Shortage - The negative silver swap rate indicates that traders are willing to pay a premium to obtain physical silver, reflecting a potential panic situation in the market [10]. - The widening gap between the silver swap rate and U.S. rates signals a deteriorating situation in the London silver market, with signs of a potential run on physical silver as investors demand delivery of the metal [10][11].