“妖镍”井喷：除了矿端扰动，还有没有需求新故事？

Core Viewpoint - The price movement of electrolytic nickel is primarily influenced by actual demand conditions, despite supply-side contractions and market speculation [1] Supply Disruption - Nickel is categorized into primary and recycled nickel, with electrolytic nickel being a key trading product and delivery standard for futures [4] - The price of electrolytic nickel has been in a downward trend due to weak downstream demand, with historical data showing significant volatility in nickel prices [4][5] - Recent policy adjustments in Indonesia, which plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production targets for 2026, have led to a rapid price rebound in the nickel market [6][5] - The futures market saw a dramatic increase in trading volume and price, indicating a surge in market participation and speculation [7] Demand Dilemma - The primary demand for electrolytic nickel comes from stainless steel, which accounts for over 70% of nickel consumption [9] - Despite supportive policies for the real estate sector, actual improvements in demand remain slow, with recent data showing a decline in stainless steel production [9][10] - Other sectors like alloys and electroplating have stable but limited demand, insufficient to absorb the excess supply of electrolytic nickel [10] Potential for Nickel Recovery - Some analysts remain optimistic about future nickel prices, citing historical trends where metals gain value in a low-interest-rate environment [12] - The demand from the new energy battery sector, particularly with the rise of solid-state batteries, is expected to contribute to future nickel consumption growth [13][14] - However, the realization of this demand is projected to be long-term, with significant commercial viability not expected until 2030 [14] - The recent price surge is attributed to policy expectations and market speculation rather than a fundamental improvement in supply-demand dynamics [14]