【首席观察】2026年，人民币汇率会怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of currency exchange, particularly the timing for exchanging RMB for USD or EUR, emphasizing the importance of managing future payment capabilities and controlling cash flow impacts from exchange rate fluctuations [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate (CNH) broke 7, reaching around 6.99 on December 25, 2025 [2]. - In 2025, the RMB appreciated approximately 4% against the USD, making the exchange of 10,000 USD cheaper by about 3,000 RMB compared to the beginning of the year [3]. - Conversely, the RMB depreciated by 9%-10% against the EUR in 2025, meaning exchanging 10,000 EUR at year-end would cost an additional 7,000-7,800 RMB compared to the start of the year [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The RMB's appreciation against the USD is attributed to several factors, including a weaker USD index, increased attractiveness of RMB assets, rising demand for currency exchange from export enterprises, and policy guidance for orderly appreciation [6][8]. - The RMB's strength in late December 2025 is seen as a response to external factors, including a significant decline in the USD index, which fell approximately 9.9% over the year, marking its worst performance since 2003 [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - For 2026, the RMB is expected to maintain a strong position against the USD, with 6.8 being a critical level, although caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks [4]. - Five key triggers are identified for the RMB's performance in 2026: continued USD weakness, stable trade surpluses, recovery in real estate expectations, marginal improvements in capital inflows, and effective policy measures to manage exchange rate volatility [11][12][13][14]. - The overall expectation for 2026 is a dual-directional fluctuation of the RMB, with a higher probability of upward trends, emphasizing the importance of confidence in monetary policy and economic structure [15].