钢材需求超预期下滑，10大省份已出手

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is facing a "capacity control" battle as demand is projected to decline, with steel consumption expected to reach approximately 800 million tons by 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% [1][4]. Group 1: Demand Forecast - The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts that steel consumption in China will be approximately 808 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and around 800 million tons in 2026, a decrease of 1.0% [4]. - Specific sectors such as construction and containers are expected to see significant declines in steel demand, with the construction sector projected to consume about 400 million tons in 2025, down 12.9%, and 384 million tons in 2026, down 4.1% [4]. - The container industry is forecasted to consume about 800,000 tons in 2025, a decrease of 35.5%, and 610,000 tons in 2026, down 23.8% [4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The steel industry's profitability is currently better than last year, but many companies believe this situation may not be sustainable during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6]. - Despite multiple rounds of capacity adjustments since 2015, the supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry remains unresolved, with policies often diluted at the local level [6][9]. - The demand decline is outpacing the reduction in production capacity, with new construction areas decreasing and the marginal effectiveness of infrastructure support diminishing [9]. Group 3: Structural Issues - The steel industry is characterized by a "small, scattered, and low" structure, with a concentration ratio (CR10) of crude steel production rising only slightly from 41.4% in 2021 to 42.0% in 2024, which is still low compared to developed countries [9]. - Many small private steel mills produce low-end products, leading to severe price competition and a failure of market signals to eliminate outdated capacity [9]. - Local governments often provide subsidies and low-interest loans to keep steel companies afloat, complicating the industry's ability to address its structural issues [10]. Group 4: Focus on Upgrading - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the need for upgrading traditional industries, with ten provinces outlining plans for the steel industry, focusing on transformation from raw material to material-grade production [12]. - Hebei province, as the largest steel producer, aims to enhance its competitiveness in global industrial division by transitioning its steel production [12]. - The demand for high-end steel products is expected to rise due to the acceleration of manufacturing upgrades and the growth of strategic emerging industries [13][14].