时报观察丨汇率没有单边走势 双向波动是常态

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has attracted market attention, with strong bullish sentiment; however, there is divergence regarding whether the RMB will continue to strengthen, indicating that two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate will be the norm [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has appreciated nearly 1.7% against the USD since mid-October, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for currency settlement [1] - Despite the typical year-end peak in currency settlement, the latest data shows that the foreign exchange market in China remains balanced, with stable bank settlement and sales, and the surplus in currency settlement is similar to October [1] - The 7.0 level is a critical point for the RMB/USD exchange rate, and given the current significant interest rate differential between the RMB and USD, it is expected that settlement demand will not remain high [1] Group 2: Market Influences and Central Bank Actions - The RMB's short-term exchange rate is influenced not only by domestic supply and demand but also by the trend of the USD index; with the Fed's interest rate cuts, the downward pressure on the USD may ease in the coming months [2] - The CFETS RMB index, which measures the RMB against a basket of currencies, has remained relatively stable over the past two months, indicating that while the USD weakens, the RMB remains at a reasonable equilibrium level [2] - The central bank is likely to take measures to prevent unilateral expectations and self-reinforcing "herd behavior" in the exchange rate market, especially if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2]