2025煤炭保供与转型底气足

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in 2025 shows a mix of impressive achievements and potential challenges, with a historical high in coal supply but a notable decline in consumption for the first time in nearly nine years [1]. Group 1: Production and Supply - From January to November 2025, the national industrial raw coal output reached 4.4 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with expectations for a record high in annual raw coal supply [1]. - Major coal-producing regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang saw raw coal production increase by 2.4%, 2.6%, and 2.6% respectively, while Inner Mongolia's production is expected to exceed 1.2 billion tons despite a decrease compared to last year [1]. - The "rich mine precision mining" policy has led to a 6.3% increase in Guizhou's raw coal output, while some regions like Jiangxi have reduced production by 37.6% due to capacity withdrawal [1]. Group 2: Policy and Regulation - Policy adjustments have significantly influenced coal production, with the National Energy Administration's July 2025 notice targeting overproduction and promoting stable coal supply [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy has effectively regulated production order in major coal-producing areas, leading to a five-month consecutive year-on-year contraction in coal supply and a rebound in coal prices [2]. - The establishment of a capacity reserve system is underway, aiming for a reserve capacity of over 90 million tons by 2026, enhancing the resilience of coal supply [2]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The modern coal chemical industry and coal-electricity joint operation models have matured, with an expected annual coal conversion of approximately 16 million tons of standard coal, becoming essential to the petrochemical sector [4]. - The coal industry is advancing in intelligent and green development, with over 900 intelligent coal mines established, accounting for nearly 25% of total coal mines, and over 50% of mining capacity now being smart mining [4]. - The National Energy Administration's guidance on integrating coal and renewable energy emphasizes the development of new energy resources in coal mining areas, with many coal companies expanding into solar, wind, and energy storage sectors [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The coal market sentiment remains complex, with consensus on coal consumption entering a peak plateau, leading to short-term supply-demand fluctuations and a gradual long-term decline in demand [5]. - The coal production focus is shifting towards resource-rich western regions, with Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang remaining the main supply areas, while older mining regions face challenges in resource continuity and transformation [5]. - As the industry moves into 2026, energy supply security and green transformation will continue to be key topics, with coal companies expected to drive high-quality development through innovative practices [5].