碳酸锂行情日报：锂价冲高回落，单日跌幅过万

Market Overview - On December 29, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 123,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 2,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - The price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) remained stable at 96,000 CNY/ton [1] - The current spot market is characterized by a lack of transactions, with some entities and traders facing significant losses from previous hedging [1] Futures Market - On December 29, lithium carbonate futures opened at 134,500 CNY but experienced a significant drop in the afternoon, closing at 118,820 CNY/ton, down 10,180 CNY from the previous trading day [1] - The reduction in open interest indicates a growing trend of profit-taking among long positions [1] Price Trends - The average price level for lithium iron phosphate cells suggests that the terminal's tolerance for lithium carbonate prices is around 110,000 CNY [4] - The price changes for various lithium products from December 26 to December 29 include: - Lithium concentrate increased by 10 CNY to 1,590 CNY [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices remained unchanged [2] Market Sentiment - Market opinions on the recent drop in lithium carbonate futures are mixed, with 70% of respondents expecting a bullish or stable market, while 30% anticipate a bearish trend, primarily from downstream companies [7] - Optimists believe that despite the afternoon price drop, overall resources remain tight, while some downstream users express concerns that high lithium carbonate prices may impact the economic viability of energy storage [7] Industry Insights - According to the production schedule for January, overall lithium battery production is expected to decline slightly, but the decrease is less significant than in previous off-seasons [10] - The supply-demand dynamics remain robust, with only lithium iron phosphate manufacturers experiencing increased maintenance [10] - The market is expected to see wide fluctuations leading up to the New Year due to the rapid increase in recent prices and slow cost transmission to downstream [10]