突发！利空来袭，全线杀跌！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in government bond futures, which is attributed to rising inflation expectations and the ongoing increase in commodity prices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][5][7]. Group 1: Government Bond Market - Government bond futures experienced a widespread decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 1.10% and closing down 0.91% at 111.820 yuan, while the 10-year contract fell by 0.28% to 107.975 yuan [1][3]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 3.4 basis points to 2.2550%, and the 10-year government bond yield increased by 2.75 basis points to 1.9340% [3]. - The overall trend indicates that the 30-year government bond futures are in a clear downtrend [3]. Group 2: Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations - Recent surges in commodity prices, including a 6.6% increase in copper prices to a record high of $12,960 per ton, are contributing to inflation concerns [7]. - The article notes that the prices of essential goods in Japan, such as rice and eggs, have reached record highs, further fueling inflation expectations [7]. - Analysts suggest that while commodity prices are rising, their impact on core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may be limited based on historical trends [8]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter, with a neutral monetary policy anticipated, and potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts, but interest rate cuts may require specific triggers [4]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the industrial goods market are projected to continue favoring oversupply, with expectations that the Producer Price Index (PPI) growth may not meet market expectations [9].