国芯网·2025-12-29 11:12Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant price increase across both mature and advanced processes, driven by structural supply-demand imbalances and rising costs, particularly influenced by the AI industry's growth [2][4][5]. Group 1: Price Increases - SMIC has officially notified downstream customers of a price increase of approximately 10% for 8-inch BCD process foundry services, with multiple chip companies confirming receipt of this notice [2]. - Taiwan's World Advanced Semiconductor has followed suit with a similar 10% price increase for the same process, indicating a clear industry-wide trend [2]. - TSMC plans to implement a series of price increases for advanced processes below 5nm starting January 2026, with an average increase of 3%-5% over four years [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The current price surge is attributed to a long-term structural imbalance between supply and demand, with explosive growth in demand, particularly from the AI sector, being a key driver [4]. - The demand for power management chips in AI servers has surged, leading to a critical shortage of related production capacity, particularly for BCD processes [4]. - TrendForce's research indicates that by the second half of 2025, driven by AI demand, wafer foundries' capacity utilization rates are expected to remain higher than previously anticipated, with some manufacturers performing better in Q4 than in Q3 [4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - TSMC is actively reducing its 8-inch mature process capacity to focus on high-value advanced processes, planning to shut down some production lines by the end of 2027, which exacerbates the supply constraints in the mature process segment [5]. - Domestic foundries are operating at full capacity, with SMIC achieving a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% and a monthly output of over 1 million 8-inch wafers [5]. - Huahong Semiconductor's capacity utilization rate has reached 109.5%, indicating an overworked state, which provides a strong basis for price increases [5]. Group 4: Cost Pressures - The cost of raw materials, particularly metals like gold and copper, remains high, with leading silicon wafer companies raising prices by an average of 12% in late December, directly increasing wafer manufacturing costs [5]. - Rising energy and labor costs further compress profit margins for foundries, making price increases a necessary response to maintain profitability [5].