最新发声！明年结构性机会仍是主线，聚焦三大方向

Core Viewpoint - The general manager of Xiangju Capital, Liang Hui, expresses a cautiously optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a generally loose macro environment with limited risks of significant market corrections and a focus on structural opportunities, particularly in AI, commodities, and overseas expansion [2][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The macro environment for 2026 is expected to be overall loose, with external fluctuations smaller than in 2025, influenced by significant political events in the U.S. and domestic policies promoting stable economic growth [4][5]. - A-share market performance in 2025 showed significant structural characteristics, with valuation increases being the main driver, while profit improvements contributed less [4][5]. - The overall return of the A-share market in 2026 may be lower than in 2025, but the risk of a major market correction is limited, with structural opportunities remaining the main focus [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The AI sector is expected to continue its growth, with market predictions indicating a 40%-50% increase in 2026, following a doubling of returns in 2025 [5]. - Commodities are seen as having overall allocation value, with copper prices likely to rise due to increased demand from AI and new energy sectors, while gold's future price movements remain uncertain [5]. - The export sector shows structural upward potential, driven by strong competitiveness of Chinese companies abroad, although risks related to overseas tariffs and internal competition exist [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Xiangju Capital is optimizing its investment portfolio by focusing on multiple asset classes and strategies, moving away from a single-style investment approach to a more concentrated selection of stocks across AI, commodities, and overseas markets [6][9]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a "free lunch" in investment, aiming to smooth volatility through a combination of low-correlation assets and strategies [8][9]. - The investment strategy includes a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities, with an expectation of weak positive returns in the bond market next year, while maintaining a balanced approach to enhance overall portfolio returns [8][9].