21世纪经济报道·2025-12-29 14:15Core Viewpoint - Major foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market for 2026, shifting their focus from "valuation repair" in 2025 to "profit growth" in 2026, driven by accelerating corporate earnings, macro policy support, and RMB appreciation [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, with corporate earnings expected to grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027 [4]. - UBS sets the target for the Hang Seng Tech Index at 7100 points and the MSCI China Index at 100 points by the end of 2026, indicating significant upside potential [4]. - HSBC forecasts the Shanghai Composite Index to reach 4500 points, the CSI 300 Index to 5400 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index to 16000 points by the end of 2026, driven primarily by corporate earnings growth rather than valuation increases [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Foreign institutions highlight structured investment opportunities, particularly in technology innovation, with a focus on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing [8]. - Traditional industries are also attracting foreign investment, with expectations of valuation recovery and improved profitability in state-owned enterprises [8]. - The influx of foreign capital is primarily directed towards high-quality assets, including technology leaders and high-dividend stocks, emphasizing value investment [8][10]. Group 3: Foreign Capital Inflow - Since the beginning of 2025, global investments in Chinese assets have seen a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with the technology sector receiving the most significant inflow of $9.5 billion [10]. - Active foreign capital is expected to return to the Chinese market, with institutions like Citigroup maintaining an "overweight" rating on China while reducing exposure to other Asian emerging markets [10][12]. - The anticipated return of active funds is supported by improving corporate fundamentals, a weaker dollar, and the attractiveness of RMB assets [11][12].