“疯狂的金属”年末为何暴涨暴跌

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility at the end of 2025, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs before facing sharp declines. The market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased demand for both precious and industrial metals [3][4][7]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of December 29, 2025, the international silver price fell over 6% during the day, reaching a low of $74.2 per ounce, while gold peaked at $4,550 per ounce before dropping to $4,444 per ounce [3][6]. - Gold and silver prices have seen substantial annual increases, with gold and silver prices rising over 70% and 162% respectively in 2025 [7][8]. - The silver market has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics providing strong support for prices [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculation - The recent surge in metal prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, trade tariffs, and a shift towards de-dollarization, which have collectively driven up precious metal prices [7][8]. - Speculative buying has intensified, with significant increases in net long positions for gold and copper, indicating strong investor interest [13]. - Exchanges have responded to the volatility by raising margin requirements for trading in various metals, aiming to mitigate extreme price fluctuations [14][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the demand for metals will continue to grow, particularly in the context of green energy transitions and industrial applications, which may lead to sustained high prices [4][11]. - The outlook for copper prices remains optimistic, with expectations of maintaining high levels due to limited supply and strong structural demand [16]. - Institutions are expected to remain bullish on metals, with projections indicating that the U.S. debt issuance and continued Federal Reserve policies will drive further investment into precious metals [16].