伦敦金库几万吨白银只剩6600吨能流动

Core Viewpoint - Physical silver is becoming the most scarce hard currency, signaling a collapse of trust in "paper promises" from banks, as evidenced by a significant premium for immediate delivery over futures prices [4][5]. Group 1: Trust Collapse - The one-year forward swap rate for silver has plummeted to -7.09%, indicating that buyers are willing to pay a premium to secure physical silver now rather than risk not receiving it later [9][10]. - This situation reflects a phenomenon known as "backwardation," where market participants no longer trust bank-issued delivery notes and prefer holding physical silver [11]. Group 2: Inventory Reality - Contrary to claims of substantial silver reserves in London, only about 6,600 tons of "free-flowing inventory" is available for immediate trading, as most of the stock is locked up by ETFs and long-term buyers [16]. - The limited available inventory poses a significant risk for a market that trades billions daily, suggesting a potential crisis if demand surges [16]. Group 3: Bank Panic - The leasing rate for silver has skyrocketed from a normal 0.5% to an alarming 39%, indicating banks' reluctance to lend out their silver, reflecting a severe shortage [20]. - This spike in leasing rates signals a warning to speculators who are unable to borrow silver to cover their short positions [20]. Group 4: Demand Surge - Silver's role has evolved beyond jewelry; it is now critical for industries such as solar energy and electric vehicles, which are consuming vast amounts of silver [21][24]. - Major industrial demands are driving the need for silver, with significant quantities required for solar panels and electric vehicle batteries [24]. Group 5: Price Forecast - Current silver prices have surpassed $75, with projections indicating a potential rise to $100 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing physical shortages and upcoming export controls in China [27]. - The market is at a historical turning point, with the impending supply constraints likely to push prices higher [27]. Conclusion - In an era where physical assets are paramount, the 7% premium for immediate silver delivery may be just the beginning of a larger financial storm [28][29].