市场对外汇干预的警惕减弱，年初日元或缓慢贬值

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, highlighting the market's expectations regarding potential foreign exchange interventions by the Japanese government and central bank, particularly in response to the yen's depreciation [2][5][9]. Group 1: Current Exchange Rate Situation - As of December 29, the exchange rate for the yen was between 156.0 and 156.4 yen per dollar, indicating a lack of direction in the market [2]. - The market's vigilance regarding foreign exchange interventions has decreased, with participants believing that the government and central bank may not be ready to intervene decisively [2][5]. - The yen's depreciation accelerated after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, with the yen briefly falling to between 157.5 and 157.9 yen per dollar on December 22 [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Intervention Expectations - There is a prevailing belief that the government may wait until the exchange rate exceeds 165 yen per dollar before taking intervention actions to avoid wasting foreign reserves [5][8]. - The market sentiment shifted to a more relaxed state as the rapid depreciation of the yen halted, with officials indicating that they have discretion regarding intervention measures [5]. - The current short positions in the yen have reached a high level, suggesting that market participants are positioning themselves for further yen weakness [6]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - Starting from January 2026, there may be renewed pressure on the yen due to increased investments in overseas assets through the new NISA program, potentially leading to a selling wave [9]. - Concerns are raised that if the government is forced to intervene due to gradual yen depreciation, it may not effectively support the yen, leading to increased selling pressure [9]. - The effectiveness of future interventions may diminish, with estimates suggesting that 5 trillion yen could only raise the yen's value by 3 to 4 yen, compared to previous interventions where 1 trillion yen raised it by 1 yen [8].