碳酸锂行情日报：材料“扳龙头“，钠电”撸羊毛“？

Market Overview - On December 30, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 121,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - The settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) remained stable at 96,000 CNY/ton [1] - The market is currently experiencing significant volatility, leading to a cautious stance from mid and downstream sectors, resulting in a situation of "no market with prices" [1] - In the futures market, lithium carbonate futures opened lower but showed a slight upward trend, with the main contract closing at 121,580 CNY/ton, down 4,760 CNY from the previous trading day [1] Price Trends - The ICC lithium battery settlement prices on December 30 showed the following: - Lithium concentrate: 1,590 CNY/ton, unchanged - Battery-grade lithium carbonate: 12.1 CNY/kg, down 0.2 CNY/kg - Lithium hydroxide: 9.6 CNY/kg, unchanged - Lithium iron phosphate: 4.51 CNY/kg, unchanged - Ternary materials: 17.15 CNY/kg, unchanged [2] - The average price level for lithium iron phosphate cells indicates that the terminal's tolerance for lithium carbonate prices is around 110,000 CNY [2] Industry Focus - Recent price surges in lithium carbonate have sparked interest in sodium batteries, with CATL indicating that large-scale applications of sodium batteries will begin in 2026 [5] - However, a survey by Xinluo Information shows that nearly 70% of companies expect sodium battery shipments to reach around 10 GWh by 2026, with only 3% believing it will exceed 15 GWh [5] - Many sodium battery manufacturers are cautious due to past price drops, stating that unless lithium carbonate prices rise significantly, they will avoid making investments [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The main issue in the market remains the supply of lithium iron phosphate, with major manufacturers undergoing maintenance, leading to a significant decrease in production in January 2026 compared to lithium batteries [9] - There is a prevailing sentiment of price increases among companies, but the transmission of costs to downstream battery prices is slow, with approximately 40 days of inventory in the lithium battery market and nearly 900,000 tons of idle capacity for lithium iron phosphate [9] - The short-term outlook for lithium carbonate prices is expected to continue fluctuating widely [9]