2025香港楼市复盘：房价租金齐回暖

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential market is expected to experience a "volume and price increase" in 2025 after years of price adjustments, with both property prices and rents recovering simultaneously. The outlook for 2026 is generally optimistic among market institutions [1][6]. Market Performance - The latest data from the Hong Kong Rating and Valuation Department shows that the private residential price index reached 297.3 points in November, marking a 0.92% increase from October and the highest level in nearly 16 months. This is the sixth consecutive month of price increases, with a cumulative rise of 3.77% [3]. - The rental index has also risen for 12 consecutive months, with an annual increase of approximately 4.26%, reaching a new historical high of 200.7 points [3]. Economic Outlook - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, projected a 3.2% economic growth for 2025, slightly above earlier forecasts, maintaining growth for the third consecutive year. The simultaneous rise in stock and property markets reinforces positive market expectations [4]. - The number of residential transactions in the first 11 months of the year approached 57,000, a year-on-year increase of about 16%, with property prices rising approximately 3% and rents increasing about 4% [4]. Market Dynamics - Real estate agents noted that relaxed market policies have prompted some buyers to expedite their market entry decisions. The global interest rate decline and strong performance in Hong Kong's financial markets, particularly the IPO market, have contributed to improved market sentiment [4]. - The phenomenon of "supply exceeding rent" is becoming more common, as evidenced by a case where a mainland buyer transitioned from renting to purchasing a property in the same area [4]. Future Projections - Industry experts, including the Vice Chairman of Centaline Property, indicated that the current market conditions are rare, with both property prices and rents rising. However, rental growth may slow down in the coming year, while property price increases are expected to outpace rent [7]. - Multiple factors, including pent-up demand, declining interest rates, rising rents, stable interest from mainland buyers, and recovery in the financial sector, are supporting the ongoing recovery of the Hong Kong residential market. Reports suggest that property prices may rise between 5% and 8% in 2026, with JPMorgan also predicting a 5% rebound by the end of 2026 [8].