碳酸锂行情日报：电车补贴藏欢喜，马年元旦添吉兆

Market Overview - As of December 31, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 120,000 CNY/ton, down by 1,000 CNY from the previous working day. The price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) remains stable at 96,000 CNY/ton [1] - Recent maintenance by downstream material manufacturers has led to weak replenishment intentions, resulting in a generally quiet market [1] - On the futures market, lithium carbonate futures opened high but closed lower, with the main contract ending at 121,580 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,040 CNY from the previous trading day, while open interest slightly decreased [1] Price Trends - The ICC lithium battery settlement prices on December 30 and December 31 show no change in lithium concentrate and lithium hydroxide prices, while battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.1 CNY from 12.1 to 12 CNY [2] - The average price level for lithium iron phosphate cells indicates that the terminal's tolerance for lithium carbonate prices is around 110,000 CNY [2] Industry Focus - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a subsidy policy for the replacement of new energy vehicles, which is expected to boost demand for power batteries in 2026. However, some industry clients express concerns that the high proportion of new energy vehicles priced below 150,000 CNY may lead to a price-volume trade-off, which may not significantly benefit upstream raw material suppliers [6] Company Developments - Zijin Mining plans to produce 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2026, with the Hunan Xiangyuan lithium mine expected to start production in December 2025 [9] - Yongxing Materials has completed the construction of a 10,000-ton green and efficient lithium extraction project, which is currently in the debugging phase [9] - Shengxin Lithium Energy intends to acquire a 30% stake in Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion CNY, with the latter's 3 million tons/year lithium mine under construction [9] - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for 4.605 billion CNY [9] Market Sentiment - The current domestic lithium carbonate market remains in a high-level fluctuation pattern, with recent policies and negotiations leading to increased market caution. There are signs of inventory accumulation in the spot market, suggesting that the upward momentum for lithium carbonate prices may weaken in the short term [10]