高市获得市场信任面临三大难关

Core Viewpoint - The focus for 2026 is on the risks associated with the proactive fiscal policy of the government led by Prime Minister Kishi, emphasizing the need to ensure market trust amidst growing caution [2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The first challenge is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting scheduled for January 22-23, where Governor Ueda is expected to maintain a rate hike stance, continuing the trend of rising interest rates [2][4]. - Despite raising the policy interest rate to 0.75% in December 2025, the yen remains weak, trading around 155 yen per dollar, indicating a persistent depreciation trend [4]. - If the Bank of Japan cannot reverse the yen's depreciation expectations, the implications of potential currency intervention will be scrutinized [4]. Group 2: Fiscal Discipline Adjustments - The second challenge involves adjusting fiscal discipline, with the government planning to revise fiscal balance indicators in January, moving away from annual surplus targets to a multi-year assessment [6]. - The previous administration set 2026 as the deadline for achieving a primary balance surplus, but the current government may introduce alternative indicators, focusing on the ratio of government debt to GDP [6]. Group 3: Economic Policy Framework - The third challenge is the "Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform" (commonly known as the "Bone-Strong Policy"), which is expected to reflect a strong proactive fiscal stance following the approval of the 2026 budget [7]. - Prime Minister Kishi has emphasized responsible fiscal management, indicating that the government will not irresponsibly issue bonds or reduce taxes, although there are concerns within the ruling party about excessive fiscal stimulus [7]. - The internal divisions within the ruling party regarding fiscal policy could pose risks to Kishi's already fragile government, making it crucial to propose a growth strategy that is acceptable to the market [7].