剑道电子·2025-12-31 02:45Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2026 is expected to be a year of significant harvest for domestic hard technology in the electronics industry, driven by advancements in AI and a consensus on performance trends within the AI industry chain [3][7]. Group 1: AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is transitioning from divergence to consensus in performance trends, with a notable recovery since the second half of 2023, marked by the return of Huawei's Mate series [3][7]. - The electronics sector has experienced a significant valuation expansion, aided by the rapid growth of passive funds and the resonance of macro policy, inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles [3][7]. - As of December 16, 2025, the electronics sector has risen by 40.22%, ranking third among all industries [7][16]. Group 2: AI Model Evolution - The evolution of AI models is characterized by innovations in architecture, such as the mixture of experts (MoE) framework, which enhances efficiency by reducing computational load [27]. - The emergence of large models, like OpenAI's GPT-4, showcases the correlation between model size and performance, leading to significant advancements in understanding and reasoning capabilities [27]. - The demand for improved model efficiency has led to innovations in attention mechanisms, which lower computational complexity and memory requirements [27][28]. Group 3: Computing Power and Storage - The domestic chip industry is actively updating and iterating, with companies like Huawei planning to launch new chips in 2026, while the storage sector is expected to face shortages and price increases throughout the year [9]. - The demand for AI-driven storage solutions is projected to increase, with DRAM bit demand expected to rise by 26% year-on-year in 2026, driven by AI applications [9]. Group 4: Power and Connectivity - The optimization of data transfer and communication within servers is becoming a critical breakthrough for enhancing computing power, with the global high-speed interconnect chip market expected to reach $21.2 billion by 2030 [11]. - The increasing power consumption of data center chips necessitates advancements in power supply architectures, with a shift towards high-density power solutions [11]. Group 5: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in demand, with a focus on domestic manufacturing and the rise of analog chips, which are expected to see increased adoption due to their potential for localization [12]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to achieve double-digit growth for three consecutive years from 2024 to 2026, driven by advancements in AI and domestic chip design [12][14].