欧盟碳关税来了，钢铝产业影响几何

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will officially enter its charging phase on January 1, 2026, initially covering six product categories: steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen. By 2028, the scope is expected to expand to approximately 180 downstream products, including washing machines and automotive parts, creating a comprehensive "green bill" for trade [1][3][14]. Group 1: CBAM Implementation and Product Scope - The CBAM's product coverage has been clarified, with a focus on six primary products, each defined by specific EU customs tariff codes [3][12]. - The implementation of CBAM will occur in phases, with a transitional period from 2023 to 2025 for carbon data research, followed by formal legislation in 2026 [13][12]. - The product scope will expand to include downstream products by 2028, with the cost burden depending on the embedded emissions from steel and aluminum used in these products [14][15]. Group 2: Compliance and Impact on Chinese Enterprises - A significant exemption threshold of 50 tons for imports will reduce compliance burdens for small and medium-sized enterprises, with approximately 90% of importers expected to be exempt while still covering about 99% of related carbon emissions [15]. - Major Chinese steel and aluminum suppliers exporting to the EU will be primarily affected, while many smaller exporters may not face direct CBAM payment obligations due to the exemption threshold [15][17]. - Chinese enterprises are advised to establish differentiated carbon emission data management systems to comply with CBAM, focusing on direct and indirect emissions based on product categories [18][21]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Strategic Responses - The emergence of green trade barriers, exemplified by CBAM and the EU's battery regulations, indicates a trend towards stricter carbon management in global trade [21][20]. - Chinese companies are encouraged to adapt to EU standards and develop low-carbon supply chains to mitigate compliance risks while participating in international carbon rule-making [21][22]. - China's proactive low-carbon transition and early industry adjustments position it favorably against stricter EU regulations, potentially allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in the global market [22].