2026年全球笔电出货量预期降至近1.73亿台

Core Viewpoint - TrendForce has revised its global laptop shipment forecast for 2026 down by 5.4% to approximately 173 million units due to rising memory prices impacting brand profitability and pricing flexibility in a context of limited economic recovery and conservative consumer behavior [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in memory prices is significantly affecting laptop brands, leading to a conservative approach towards inventory, promotions, and product configurations [2]. - If memory price increases do not stabilize by Q2 2026, brands may face weakened demand for entry-level and consumer laptops, potentially resulting in a pessimistic scenario where total shipments could decline by 10.1% year-over-year [5]. Group 2: Brand Resilience - Brands that maintain stable long-term relationships with major memory suppliers and have a higher proportion of business and mid-to-high-end products will be better positioned to withstand the current memory price increases [5]. - Apple, for instance, despite facing rising memory costs, benefits from a highly integrated supply chain and strong pricing power, allowing for greater product line adjustment flexibility [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Lenovo, as a major player, is expected to face MSRP increases but can leverage its scale and mature supply chain to manage cost increases effectively, potentially even expanding its market share [6]. - The overall laptop market is projected to see a decline in panel shipments by approximately 7.9% in 2026 due to the impact of rising memory prices [6].