全面降息下的“存款搬家”

Core Viewpoint - By the end of 2025, the traditional high-interest fixed deposits are becoming scarce, with rates dropping to the "1" range, leading to a significant shift of residents' funds from traditional deposits to diversified assets like wealth management, insurance, and gold. This trend of "deposit migration" is expected to continue into 2026, with further adjustments in the deposit market anticipated [3][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Deposit Market Changes - In 2025, the personal deposit and wealth management markets exhibited significant structural differentiation, with long-term fixed deposit rates entering the "1" range and high-interest products being withdrawn [5]. - Major state-owned banks initiated a wave of interest rate cuts starting May 20, 2025, reducing the interest rates for various deposit types, including a 25 basis point cut for 3-year and 5-year fixed deposits [5][6]. - Smaller banks followed suit, with some reducing rates more aggressively than state-owned banks, leading to a situation where long-term deposit rates fell below those of shorter-term deposits, eroding the traditional appeal of smaller banks as high-interest havens [6][8]. Group 2: Impact on Net Interest Margins and Bank Strategies - The prolonged low macro interest rate environment has led to a narrowing of net interest margins for commercial banks, with the average net interest margin reported at 1.42% as of the third quarter of 2025 [8]. - Many smaller banks have suspended new business for long-term deposits to reduce high-cost funding, thereby enhancing the flexibility of fund utilization [8][9]. - The trend of "deposit migration" is influencing banks' strategies, with state-owned banks focusing on wealth management to offset net interest margin pressures, while smaller banks may adopt differentiated pricing and innovative products to attract deposits [12]. Group 3: Changes in Resident Asset Allocation - Data from the central bank indicates a noticeable slowdown in the growth of residents' fixed deposits, with a shift towards higher-yielding assets such as wealth management products and gold [9]. - By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [11]. - The strategies for attracting deposits are diverging, with local banks relying on promotional tactics while state-owned banks emphasize stable management and cost control [9][11]. Group 4: Outlook for 2026 - Industry insiders predict that the adjustment in the deposit market will deepen in 2026, with the trend of "deposit migration" expected to persist, as residents continue to diversify their savings into wealth management, insurance, and gold [11]. - It is anticipated that the average reduction in retail deposit rates will be around 30 basis points, with a significant increase in non-fixed deposit investments expected to attract an additional 2-4 trillion yuan in 2026 [11][12]. - Banks are encouraged to innovate product designs and enhance service levels to improve the proportion of short-term deposits, while residents are likely to prioritize yield, liquidity, and risk control in their asset allocation decisions [12].