十大首席经济学家展望2026

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth outlook for 2026 is influenced by increasing geopolitical competition, particularly in trade and innovation sectors like AI [8] - The dual circulation model in China is evolving, with internal economic supply improving while external demand shows new patterns, particularly in capital goods exports to emerging markets [8][9] - Key factors for promoting internal and external circulation include innovation development and boosting domestic demand, with fiscal expansion playing a crucial role [9] U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in January and April 2026, bringing the target range to 3.00%-3.25% due to a cooling labor market [11][12] - The Fed faces dual pressures from rising inflation and a weakening job market, with the unemployment rate projected to peak at 4.7% in Q2 2026 [12] Currency and Commodity Outlook - The U.S. dollar may continue to weaken in 2026, but factors such as the resilience of the gold market and the Fed's commitment to independence could mitigate this [15] - Gold prices are projected to rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by strong central bank demand and a favorable macroeconomic environment [17][18] U.S. Stock Market and AI Sector - The U.S. stock market, particularly tech stocks, is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by solid corporate earnings and favorable liquidity conditions [20][21] - The current AI boom is fundamentally different from past bubbles, with real demand and strategic capital expenditures driving growth, although volatility and sector differentiation are anticipated [22][23] China Economic Growth - China's economy is projected to grow around 5% in 2026, supported by a recovering global trade environment and diversified export markets [25][26] - Internal demand is expected to improve due to counter-cyclical policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating consumption [26][27] Fiscal and Monetary Policy in China - China's fiscal policy will become more proactive, with an expected increase in deficit and government debt issuance to support economic growth [33][34] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to enhance liquidity [30][29] Real Estate Market in China - The real estate market is still in a downward phase, with significant price declines and sales drops, but there is hope for stabilization in 2026 with appropriate policy support [36][37] - Long-term prospects for the real estate sector remain tied to urbanization and demographic trends, despite current challenges [38] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to stabilize around the 4,000-point mark, transitioning from a psychological barrier to a support level as market dynamics shift towards institutional investors [40][41] - The AI and technology sectors are seen as key drivers of market performance, with a focus on domestic innovation and application in various industries [42][43]