凌晨，全线跳水！美联储降息，大消息！

Market Overview - On January 1, 2026, U.S. stock indices experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both dropping over 0.7% [1] - The S&P 500 index closed down 0.74% with an annual gain of 16.39%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.76% with a yearly increase of 20.36% [3] - Major tech stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla, all saw declines, with Tesla and Broadcom dropping over 1% [5] Employment Data Impact - Recent employment data showed a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a resilient labor market, which dampened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January dropped to 16.1%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates rose to 83.9% [11] Stock Performance Insights - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.13%, with notable declines in stocks like NIO and NetEase, while Alibaba and JD.com showed significant annual gains [5] - The performance of tech stocks varied, with Alibaba up over 75% and JD.com down nearly 15% for the year [5] Future Market Outlook - Wall Street analysts generally expect the bull market to continue into 2026, with UBS strategists predicting a 10% year-on-year growth in S&P 500 earnings, targeting a year-end index level of 7700 [7] - Sanctuary Wealth's chief investment strategist anticipates the S&P 500 could reach between 10,000 and 13,000 by 2030 [8] - Conversely, GMO's Ben Inker warns that concentrated investments in expensive AI stocks may lead to disappointing future returns, with a potential negative return in 2026 [9] Warren Buffett's Retirement - Warren Buffett officially retired as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on December 31, 2025, at the age of 95, but will remain as chairman and retain a significant stake in the company [6]