2026年国补方案正式发布，沪指全年上涨18.41%

Group 1: National Subsidy Policies - The 2026 national subsidy policy focuses on four categories: vehicle scrapping, vehicle replacement, home appliances, and digital/智能 products, with the exclusion of home decoration and electric bicycles compared to 2025 [2] - In the automotive sector, subsidies will be based on a percentage of the new car price (12% or 10%), with a cap of 20,000 yuan or 15,000 yuan, maintaining the 2025 standards [2] - The home appliance subsidy has been reduced from 20% to 15%, with the maximum subsidy per appliance decreasing from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan, indicating a tightening of product eligibility [2] Group 2: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in December, marking the first time it exceeded the critical point since April, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector [4] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were reported at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous month [4] - Large enterprises returned to expansion with a PMI of 50.8%, while high-tech manufacturing led with a PMI of 52.5%, reflecting strong demand in these sectors [4][5] Group 3: Real Estate Tax Policy - Starting January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will pay a 3% VAT, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from VAT [6] - The reduction of VAT from 5% to 3% for newly purchased homes aims to lower transaction costs, potentially stimulating sales, although the overall impact may be limited due to the small proportion of such transactions in the market [6][7] Group 4: Global Economic Developments - India's GDP has surpassed Japan's, making it the fourth-largest economy globally, with a projected growth rate of 8.2% for the second quarter of the 2025-2026 fiscal year [8] - The Indian government is focusing on boosting domestic manufacturing and creating high-paying jobs for its young population, which poses a significant challenge [9] Group 5: Semiconductor Equipment Exports - The U.S. has approved Samsung and SK Hynix to export semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China starting in 2026, requiring annual approval for the types and quantities of equipment [10] - This arrangement allows Korean companies to maintain production capacity in China while potentially limiting their long-term strategic planning in the region [11] Group 6: Stock Market Performance - The South Korean stock market saw a nearly 76% increase in 2025, the largest since 1999, driven by strong performances from major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix [14] - Japan's stock market also performed well, closing at a record high, supported by government spending and improved trade relations with the U.S. [15] - The A-share market experienced a significant annual increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 18.41% and the total market capitalization reaching nearly 109 trillion yuan [16]