高盛万字报告：2026，这四大领域的竞赛继续

Core Viewpoint - The combination of capital, talent, and policy is crucial for China's significant advancements in technology and high-end manufacturing in recent years and will be a key advantage in future technology strategies [2][46]. Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition between China and the U.S. is centered around artificial intelligence (AI), with both countries focusing on different aspects: the U.S. on AI chips and infrastructure, and China on transforming production lines and applications [5][6]. - The two countries are competing in five key AI innovation areas: artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multi-omics sequencing [6]. Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - By 2030, the cumulative investment in AI infrastructure in the U.S. is projected to reach $3-4 trillion, while China's investment is expected to exceed 10 trillion RMB, marking it as one of the largest single-industry investments since 1949 [7]. - In terms of AI computing power, the U.S. holds 74.5% of the global share, while China accounts for 14%. However, China's power generation capacity is nearly three times that of the U.S., with annual spending on the power grid at $90 billion, three times that of the U.S. [7]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - The U.S. maintains a dominant position in foundational technology innovation, particularly in semiconductors, AI frameworks, cloud computing infrastructure, and quantum computing [9]. - China has achieved breakthroughs in quantum communication, hypersonic technology, and power batteries, with a global market share of over 60% in power batteries [13]. Group 4: Application and Market Penetration - China is significantly ahead of the U.S. in the application of advanced technologies, with a deployment of industrial robots 12 times larger than that of the U.S. Adjusted for income differences, this reflects a deeper integration of technology into the economy [15][17]. - The rapid testing and adoption of AI applications, such as autonomous taxis, highlight China's practical approach to technology integration, with Wuhan being the largest city for autonomous vehicles globally [15][17]. Group 5: Digital Infrastructure - China is leading the global south in the deployment of digital infrastructure, including 5G communication and data centers, which are essential for the future digital economy [24][25]. - The cost of AI inference in China is projected to be lower than in the U.S. due to cheaper green energy and large-scale operations, providing a long-term cost advantage [25]. Group 6: Resource Independence - China dominates the rare earth industry, holding 49% of global reserves and 92% of refining capacity, which is critical for technology independence [32][33]. - The strategic focus on reducing reliance on Western technology while enhancing Western dependence on Chinese supply chains is a key aspect of China's competitive strategy [33]. Group 7: Policy and Long-term Strategy - China's technology strategy is characterized by coherence and long-term vision, with significant investments in key sectors such as new energy, advanced materials, and quantum technology [39][41]. - The establishment of over 2,000 government-guided funds, totaling 12.8 trillion RMB, reflects a commitment to supporting strategic industries and fostering innovation [41]. Group 8: Future Opportunities - The competition between China and the U.S. is reshaping global capital and industrial landscapes, creating parallel investment opportunities in semiconductor localization in China and advanced packaging/AI chip design in the U.S. [53]. - The Middle East's role in providing cheap energy will be crucial in the AI era, as energy costs become a significant factor in technology development [58][59].