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Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a "V-shaped" reversal in 2025, transitioning from supply surplus in the first half to demand-driven growth in the second half, with prices reaching 120,000 yuan/ton by December 30, 2025 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: The low prices previously suppressed new project investments and led to the permanent exit of high-cost production capacities. Future lithium ore supply growth is expected to slow down, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-20% over the next five years [6]. - Demand: Strong growth in lithium battery demand is anticipated, with a projected CAGR of 25-30% over the next five years, particularly driven by explosive growth in energy storage and AI data centers [6]. - Cost: Rising environmental and compliance costs are expected to increase lithium mining and extraction costs domestically, while international costs may rise due to resource nationalization in countries like Argentina and Chile [6]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Inventory: As demand accelerates, inventory levels across the supply chain are expected to tighten, with historical low levels anticipated in the second half of 2025 [7]. - Technical Substitution: Although sodium-ion battery technology shows potential for cost reduction, lithium batteries are expected to remain the dominant technology for the next 3-5 years [7]. Broader Commodity Trends - Other Commodities: The price trends of other commodities such as gold, copper, and aluminum are also in a long-term bull market, influenced by global quantitative easing and geopolitical factors [8]. - Related Materials: Prices of lithium battery-related materials, including copper foil and electrolytes, are also on the rise, impacting lithium carbonate prices [9]. Contrasting Views on Market Outlook - Bearish Perspective: The bearish view argues that global lithium resource capacity is increasing rapidly, leading to a long-term supply surplus. The expected CAGR for lithium ore capacity is 20-25% over the next five years [11]. - Cost Dynamics: The overall cost curve is expected to decline due to the exit of high-cost production and technological advancements, with cash costs for certain projects potentially dropping to 40,000-60,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Demand Concerns: The anticipated high growth in end-user demand, particularly in energy storage, may be overstated, with a projected CAGR of only 15-20% for global lithium battery demand over the next five years [11]. Future Projections - The overall outlook from the research institute suggests a bullish stance on lithium carbonate prices, with expectations for prices to stabilize between 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton in the long term, driven by sustained demand and limited supply [13].