越南发展的天花板在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is experiencing significant economic growth, with a projected GDP growth rate of 7.4% to 8% by 2025, making it a "star" in global economic development [5][6]. Economic Performance - Vietnam achieved a GDP growth rate of 7.52% in the first half of the year, the highest in 15 years, and aims for an annual target of 8% [6]. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reached $117.2 billion in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong investment interest [6][8]. - The total trade volume is expected to reach $900 billion by 2025, significantly exceeding the GDP of $470 billion in 2024 [6]. Geopolitical and Geographical Challenges - Vietnam's geographical position, while advantageous for trade, limits its market size and resource availability, creating a natural ceiling for economic growth [12][16]. - The country's long and narrow shape complicates infrastructure development, leading to high costs and inefficiencies in transportation [16][18]. - Vietnam faces competition from neighboring countries in manufacturing and agriculture, increasing its reliance on external markets and making it vulnerable to geopolitical shifts [18][21]. Historical Context and Opportunities - Unlike successful countries like South Korea and Japan, Vietnam lacks the historical opportunities that facilitated their industrial growth, such as significant foreign aid and favorable global conditions [19][20]. - The current global economic environment is characterized by rising protectionism and localized supply chains, which pose challenges for Vietnam's export-driven economy [21][23]. Governance and Institutional Challenges - Vietnam struggles with governance issues, including a fragmented political landscape and inefficient policy execution, stemming from historical conflicts [25][27]. - The administrative structure is overly complex, with a high percentage of the budget allocated to public sector salaries, limiting investment in critical areas like education and infrastructure [27][30]. - The lack of skilled labor and inadequate governance capacity hinder Vietnam's ability to transition from an assembly-based economy to one focused on high-value industries [25][30].