十大顶级经济学家展望2026

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to build a robust monetary and capital market to bridge innovation and consumption, driving the economy into a new cycle of high-quality development [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - China should advance the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse, a consumption powerhouse, and a financial powerhouse characterized by a full-chain technology and industrial layout [3]. - The future growth model will rely on multiple pillars, supported by a stabilized real estate market and ongoing efforts to reduce "involution" [5]. Group 2: Innovation and Consumption - There is an expectation for consumption to reverse its trend by 2026, driven by a strengthened innovation-driven layout [4]. - The dual focus on "starry sea" innovation and "daily necessities" improvement in people's livelihoods is crucial for China's economic future [7]. Group 3: Capital Market and Investment - A capital market that supports China's technological future must establish a full-chain capital support ecosystem, including a "National Basic Research Fund" to attract long-term capital from insurance and pension funds [17]. - The article highlights the importance of stabilizing residents' income growth expectations to boost consumption and break the cycle of pessimism [21]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - The global economic growth is expected to remain between low and moderate levels by 2026, influenced by the actions and policies of the United States, such as potential sanctions or trade restrictions [13]. - As the competition between China and the U.S. in technology continues, other economies may find it increasingly difficult to navigate independently and may need to adopt a "bet on both sides" strategy [19].