2025市场回顾：AI主导全球股市走向，贵金属领跑大宗商品

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 was marked by significant market volatility driven by factors such as artificial intelligence (AI), trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and debt issues, with a notable performance in the commodity market, particularly precious metals [3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The global stock market rebounded sharply from early April, with the MSCI global index rising 21% for the year, marking the sixth occurrence of double-digit annual growth in the past seven years [5]. - The technology sector, especially semiconductors and AI-related fields, led the market rally, with the U.S. indices recording substantial gains: Nasdaq up 20.76%, S&P 500 up 16.39%, and Dow Jones up 12.97% [5][7]. - European markets also performed well, with Spain's IBEX35 index soaring 49.27%, Italy's IT 40 index up 31.47%, and Germany's DAX 30 index rising 23.01% [7][8]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market experienced significant divergence, with gold prices rising 64.60%, silver up 144.53%, and platinum up 124.29%, marking the best annual performance since the 1979 oil crisis [9][11]. - Industrial metals also saw strong gains, with copper prices reaching a historical high of $12,960 per ton, up 41.78%, driven by demand from AI and renewable energy sectors [9]. - Conversely, cocoa prices plummeted 47.47%, while crude oil prices fell for the third consecutive year, with WTI down 19.91% and Brent down 18.44% [10][11]. Group 3: Currency Market Developments - The U.S. dollar fell 9.37%, the largest annual decline since 2017, leading to a rise in other currencies: the euro increased by 13.3% and the Swiss franc by 14.5% [11]. - Emerging market currencies showed resilience, with the Russian ruble appreciating 30% amid renewed interactions with the U.S. [11]. Group 4: Future Market Uncertainties - As 2026 approaches, uncertainties remain, including the impact of U.S. midterm elections and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, which could affect monetary policy [13]. - The AI sector faces challenges regarding investment returns, with concerns about the sustainability of its growth model, which relies heavily on external funding [13][14]. - Geopolitical factors, including elections in Israel and Hungary, as well as ongoing conflicts, will continue to influence market dynamics [13].