财联社·2026-01-01 15:00Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by three key trends: storage, AI, and domestic production. A global supply-demand gap in storage is anticipated to persist, while AI-related capital expenditures and innovations in domestic chip design are set to rise sharply [4][5]. Group 1: Storage - The storage market saw a dramatic price increase in 2025, with major players forecasting that shortages will continue into 2026. Micron's Chief Business Officer highlighted a significant gap between supply and demand [6]. - TrendForce predicts that capital expenditures in the storage sector will rise, with DRAM spending increasing from $53.7 billion to $61.3 billion (14% YoY) and NAND spending from $21.1 billion to $22.2 billion (5% YoY) [6]. - Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo, HP, and Dell are planning to raise prices and adjust product specifications in response to rising storage costs, with Lenovo already notifying customers of upcoming price hikes [7]. Group 2: AI - The AI sector continues to thrive, with global cloud service providers expected to increase capital expenditures by 40% to $600 billion in 2026, driven by demand for AI applications [9]. - The shift from training to inference in AI models is anticipated to boost the demand for ASIC chips, with projections of over 800,000 units shipped in 2026 [9]. - Companies like Chipone have reported a significant increase in new orders, indicating strong demand for customized chip solutions [9]. Group 3: Domestic Production - The domestic semiconductor design sector is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of companies increasing from 1,380 in 2017 to 3,901 in 2025, and sales revenue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% [12]. - The utilization rates of domestic foundries like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor have rebounded, benefiting from the rise of local chip design firms and a trend towards localized manufacturing [12]. - In the foundry segment, advanced logic production is expected to double, with significant expansions planned by companies like SMIC and Huahong [15].