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Core Viewpoint - The Indian government has announced a new tax on cigarettes, leading to a significant drop in tobacco stocks, with major companies like ITC and Godfrey Phillips India experiencing sharp declines in their stock prices [2][3]. Group 1: Tax Impact on Tobacco Industry - The new excise duty on cigarettes will be implemented from February 1, with tax rates ranging from 2050 to 8500 rupees (approximately $22.82 to $94.60) per 1000 cigarettes based on length [6]. - Analysts predict that this tax increase could lead to a 22% to 28% rise in overall costs for cigarettes measuring 75 to 85 millimeters, potentially resulting in a price increase of 2 to 3 rupees per cigarette [6][7]. - The new tax will be added on top of the existing 40% Goods and Services Tax (GST), further increasing the financial burden on consumers [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Company Performance - ITC, a leading player in the tobacco sector, saw its stock drop by 9.7%, while Godfrey Phillips India experienced a 17% decline, contributing to a 3.2% drop in the fast-moving consumer goods index [3][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the tax's impact has led to increased pressure on stock prices, with analysts noting that ITC may need to raise prices by at least 15% to offset the tax burden [7]. - The first major shareholder of ITC, British American Tobacco, is reportedly reducing its stake, adding to the company's challenges in navigating the new tax landscape [7]. Group 3: Government's Rationale and Broader Context - The Indian government aims to keep cigarettes "sufficiently expensive" as a means to curb usage and alleviate pressure on public health systems, with tobacco-related diseases costing the economy over 2.4 trillion rupees (approximately $267 billion) annually [8]. - The government has previously implemented measures to prevent tobacco products from becoming cheaper and more accessible, including new health and national security taxes on machinery used for tobacco production [8].