利空！马斯克，突传重磅！

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant downward revisions in its delivery forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum in the coming years [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tesla Delivery Forecasts - Wall Street predicts Tesla will deliver approximately 440,900 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11%, marking a continuous drop in deliveries for two consecutive years [1][2]. - The overall delivery forecast for Tesla in 2025 is estimated at 1.6408 million vehicles, down nearly 8% from 1.789 million in 2024, which would represent a significant decline after a slight decrease in 2024 [3][4]. - Analysts have drastically reduced their 2026 delivery expectations for Tesla from over 3 million to around 1.8 million vehicles, reflecting growing concerns about the company's short-term performance [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Tesla's Performance - The anticipated decline in Q4 2025 sales is attributed to the expiration of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit in September, which previously incentivized purchases and led to a surge in Q3 sales, potentially depleting demand for Q4 [4]. - Tesla has publicly stated that it does not endorse any analyst information or conclusions, emphasizing the objective presentation of data [4]. Group 3: Tesla's Stock Performance - As of December 31, 2025, Tesla's stock has experienced a six-day consecutive decline, dropping over 1% on the last trading day, resulting in a cumulative retreat of approximately 8%, although the stock still saw an annual increase of about 11% [5]. - Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio is nearing 300, which places significant pressure on the company to fulfill its promises regarding autonomous driving technology [5]. Group 4: SpaceX Developments - SpaceX announced plans to lower the operational altitude of approximately 4,400 Starlink satellites from about 550 kilometers to 480 kilometers to reduce collision risks and manage space debris [6][8]. - This adjustment is part of a major reorganization of the satellite constellation, aimed at creating a safer operational environment and is influenced by solar activity cycles that affect atmospheric density [8]. - The low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly congested, with projections indicating a 190% increase in the number of low Earth orbit satellites over the next decade [8].