商业航天2026：老股或遭疯抢

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is transitioning from a technology validation phase to a commercialization and scaling phase, with 2026 marking a critical turning point for the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - There is a surge in social capital and state-owned fund investments in leading commercial aerospace projects, with a notable increase in inquiries about the transfer of existing shares [4]. - The demand for old share transfers has significantly increased since the second half of 2025, indicating a growing interest from institutions in entering the commercial aerospace sector [5]. - The commercial aerospace sector is now recognized as a strategically significant emerging industry, with state-owned capital increasingly participating in this space [4][5]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The government has been actively promoting the development of commercial aerospace, with recent reports emphasizing the need for industry cluster development [6]. - The introduction of specific listing standards for commercial rocket companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has opened up new funding avenues for these firms [6][7]. - The overall financing in the commercial aerospace sector reached 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 32% increase year-on-year, with rocket manufacturing and satellite applications being the primary areas attracting investment [7]. Group 3: Industry Competition and Challenges - The commercial rocket launch industry is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with at least 10 companies initiating IPO processes, indicating a rapid acceleration in the market [8]. - The number of rocket launches in China exceeded 92 in 2025, marking a 48% increase, reflecting the industry's growing capabilities [9]. - The competition is intensifying, particularly around the development of reusable rockets, which are crucial for reducing launch costs and achieving market dominance [10][11]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The focus on reusable rockets is becoming critical, with companies aiming to reduce launch costs significantly, targeting a cost of under 20,000 yuan per kilogram [11][12]. - The domestic reusable rocket technology is still in a catch-up phase, with various companies pursuing different technical routes [13]. - By 2026, multiple models of reusable rockets are expected to compete, with significant advancements anticipated in the first half of the year [14][15]. Group 5: Satellite Manufacturing Evolution - The traditional model of satellite manufacturing is shifting towards batch production, driven by the large-scale requirements of low Earth orbit satellite constellations [18][19]. - Companies are adopting industrialized production methods to enhance efficiency and reduce manufacturing cycles, with some firms achieving an 80% reduction in production time [20]. - The growth of satellite manufacturing capabilities is essential for supporting the deployment of large satellite constellations, which is becoming a critical aspect of the commercial aerospace landscape [19][20].