多晶硅期货狂飙，空头遭逼仓后巨亏

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in the price of polysilicon futures, which increased over 85% from around 31,000 yuan/ton to a peak of 63,000 yuan/ton, despite a perceived oversupply in the physical market, raising questions about the underlying drivers of this trend [2][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The polysilicon futures market experienced a dramatic turnaround starting in July 2025, with prices rising sharply from 31,000 yuan/ton to approximately 55,000 yuan/ton within a month, marking a more than 70% increase [7]. - The "anti-involution" movement, which began gaining traction in mid-2024, aimed to curb excessive competition and promote industry self-discipline, significantly altering market expectations and contributing to the price surge [5][6]. - By late 2025, the market faced a structural shortage of deliverable polysilicon, as most available products did not meet delivery standards, leading to increased pressure on short sellers and supporting higher futures prices [14]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - Many investors entered the polysilicon futures market amid rising prices, but those betting against the trend faced significant losses, with one investor reporting a total loss of 13 to 15 million yuan due to the extreme volatility [12]. - The market saw a mix of optimism and fear, with some investors believing that the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform would provide price support, while others remained skeptical due to high inventory levels [17]. - The futures market's volatility was exacerbated by rumors of production limits and the establishment of a storage platform, which created a challenging environment for short sellers [9][10]. Group 3: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange implemented stricter risk control measures, including increasing margin requirements and transaction costs, to manage the volatility in the polysilicon futures market [15]. - The establishment of a polysilicon production integration and acquisition platform by major industry players was seen as a potential stabilizing factor for prices, although concerns about high inventory levels persisted [17]. - Analysts predict that the polysilicon industry will continue to face a supply-demand imbalance in 2026, with supply growth expected at 3.7% and demand potentially decreasing by 10% due to shifts in policy focus [18].