专访尹艳林：多措并举提振消费，关键要稳定居民收入增长预期

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for increased domestic demand policies to sustain economic growth in 2026, focusing on enhancing consumer spending and stabilizing investment levels [1]. Group 1: Consumer Spending - In 2024, China's resident consumption rate is projected to be 39.9%, which is 10-30 percentage points lower than that of developed countries. The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a significant increase in this rate [4]. - The consumption rate is influenced by the proportion of final consumption expenditure in GDP, which varies with economic conditions, investment, and export levels. For instance, a decline in investment growth in 2025 is expected to lead to a higher consumption rate compared to the previous year [5]. - To boost the consumption rate, key strategies include increasing residents' income, enhancing consumer willingness by removing unreasonable consumption restrictions, and improving the social security system [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Investment - To stabilize market expectations, the economic growth target for 2026 should be set around 5%. This requires proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [7]. - The government should maintain necessary fiscal deficits and expand investment in infrastructure and public services, particularly in new urbanization and rural revitalization projects [12]. - Investment in traditional industries and emerging sectors is crucial, as there remains significant demand for infrastructure and public services amid ongoing urbanization [12][13]. Group 3: Middle-Income Group Expansion - The article highlights the importance of expanding the middle-income group, which is defined as households with annual incomes between 100,000 to 500,000 yuan, comprising over 400 million people [10]. - Increasing the share of residents' income in national income distribution requires a smooth labor market, fair compensation mechanisms, and improved tax systems to enhance disposable income [9]. - The growth of the middle-income group is expected to shift consumption patterns towards higher-quality goods and services, thereby boosting domestic demand [10]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Proposed measures to stimulate consumption include continuing the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, enhancing direct consumer benefits, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [11]. - To maintain reasonable investment growth, the government should optimize investment structures, focusing on public welfare and integrating investments in physical and human capital [13]. - The establishment of a unified national market is essential for leveraging the advantages of a large domestic market, which involves breaking down barriers to market access and ensuring fair competition [14].