2026年比特币最可能发生的三种剧本

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is positioned as a "super sponge" for global liquidity, anticipating a rare "liquidity resonance" between the US and China economies [4][12]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The recent market sentiment reflects significant fear among investors, with Bitcoin's price dropping from a historical high of $126,000 to current levels, leading to a substantial outflow of funds from the BlackRock IBIT fund [5][9]. - The IBIT fund's assets under management (AUM) have decreased by approximately 32% from their peak in October 2025, now standing around $67.6 billion, with eight out of the last ten weeks experiencing outflows [9]. - The outflows are characterized by "tax loss harvesting," where fund managers sell Bitcoin positions to offset gains from other investments, indicating a financial maneuver rather than a permanent devaluation of the asset [9][10]. Group 2: Global Liquidity Dynamics - The analysis suggests that the fate of Bitcoin in 2026 will be influenced more by global central bank policies than by Wall Street trading activities [11]. - The global M2 money supply has reached a historic high of over $130 trillion, showing a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price movements [13]. - Liquidity influx is expected from two main sources: China's central bank injecting liquidity to combat deflation, and the US Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening, which may lead to a search for higher yields as the dollar index falls below 100 [14]. Group 3: Market Behavior and Whale Activity - Data indicates a significant "class transfer" of Bitcoin holdings, with small retail investors selling off their positions while larger "whale" wallets are accumulating Bitcoin [16][19]. - The balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, suggesting a supply shock as many Bitcoins are moved to cold wallets and taken out of circulation [22][23]. Group 4: Future Scenarios for Bitcoin - The most likely scenario (50% probability) predicts that Bitcoin will stabilize between $82,000 and $92,000 in the first quarter of 2026, followed by a price surge past $100,000 in the second quarter, potentially reaching $150,000 by year-end [26]. - A pessimistic scenario (20% probability) suggests that unexpected inflation could lead to a Fed rate hike, causing Bitcoin to test critical support levels below $80,000, possibly dropping to $60,000 [27][28]. Conclusion - The historical outflows from the IBIT fund may signify the end of one cycle and the beginning of a new liquidity-driven phase, urging investors to remain vigilant about the underlying liquidity dynamics [30][31].